IMPI Revises Inflation Forecast, Projects 14% Rate By December

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has revised its inflation forecast for Nigeria, projecting a further decline in headline inflation to 14 percent by December 2025, following the recent drop to 18.02 percent.

In its latest policy statement signed by Chairman Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank noted that the trend of disinflation over the past six months has begun to yield tangible economic benefits, including a likely improvement in poverty levels.

IMPI recalled that in its September Policy Statement 029, it had projected that inflation would drop to 17 percent from the 20.12 percent recorded in August 2025 — a projection that closely aligned with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data released thereafter.

According to the group, the steady reduction in inflation marks a positive turnaround from the country’s high inflationary environment that peaked at 34.8 percent in December 2024.

“In many particular ways, inflation plays a significant role in the World Bank’s template of increased estimates of poverty in a jurisdiction,” the statement read. “The high inflation environment that prevailed in Nigeria, peaking at 34.8 percent in December 2024, was a major input to the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into poverty by the World Bank. Things have, however, changed over the last six months. From the high inflationary environment, the economy has transmuted to a vastly improved one.”

IMPI asserted that with the ongoing disinflation, more Nigerians are being cycled out of poverty, adding that the government’s fiscal and monetary policies are showing encouraging results.

“With a new set of data available to us, we can further improve on our Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection to submit that the inflation rate will decline to 14 percent by December 2025. This is a shift from the 17 percent we projected in our last Policy Statement,” IMPI stated.

The group also expressed confidence that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would respond to the improved macroeconomic indicators by easing monetary policy.

“We still expect that the Monetary Policy authorities, the Central Bank of Nigeria, will, at its next meeting, have compelling reasons to, at the least, reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by another 150 basis points,” the statement added.

IMPI commended the federal administration’s “strong determination to ensure a low-cost economic environment,” even as it continues to navigate ongoing labour negotiations and other policy challenges.