NIGERIA’S N152 TRILLION RECORD DEBT: A Sinking Ship or a Rising Phoenix?

By Olabode Opeseitan

It’s the kind of headline that sparks panic: Nigeria’s public debt hits ?152.39 trillion. The highest ever recorded. The kind of figure that makes global lenders tighten their terms, and citizens tighten their belts. But here’s the twist—Nigeria isn’t sinking. It’s surging.

Under President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu , the country has launched a high-stakes economic overhaul that feels more like triage than policy. Fuel subsidies? Axed. Exchange rates? Unified. Debt servicing? Slashed. The pain is palpable. But so is the momentum. This isn’t just a fiscal pivot. It’s a full-blown attempt at real resurrection.

DEBT AND RESERVES: Context Over Catastrophe

First, perspective is everything. Nigeria’s raw debt is not at the top of the global pile where the front runners are among the world’s biggest economies such as the United States ($32.9 trillion), China ($15 trillion), and Japan ($10.9 trillion).

Nigeria sits further down the list—its $99.7 billion public debt is sizable for an African nation, but globally, it hovers close to No 41 in nominal terms, well behind most G20 economies and with a debt-to-GDP ratio (22%) that is comfortably below international red lines. It’s mid-table, not mid-collapse.

More striking is Nigeria’s foreign reserve position. At $43.4 billion, it’s the highest in over five years and places Nigeria ahead of South Africa, Argentina, Ukraine, Ghana, and Pakistan. This is a signal to global markets: Nigeria is not on the brink—it’s on the mend. That milestone is better appreciated when contrasted with the foreign reserves of Somalia ($200 million), Zimbabwe ($485 million) and Burkina Faso, which some people had derisively and mischievously hailed as doing better than Nigeria ($498.8 million).

THE REALITY BEHIND THE RHETORIC: Debt, Discipline, and Direction

Beneath the noise, Nigeria’s fiscal story is not a circus—it’s choreography. The debt profile, often sensationalized, is in fact a balanced mix of domestic and foreign obligations—from China and France to multilateral lenders like the World Bank and Islamic Development Bank. Crucially, Nigeria has never missed a payment. Most of these obligations are long-term, easing rollover pressure and allowing for strategic breathing space.

Nigeria borrows to fund infrastructure: railways, refineries, and power grids—not payrolls or political patronage. That distinction matters. It’s the difference between recklessness and reform.

THE REFORM SCORECARD: Tinubu’s Hits and Misses

What’s Working

Tinubu’s reforms are unapologetically bold. Exchange rate unification has restored FX transparency. Subsidy removal freed trillions in fiscal space. Debt servicing ratio dropped from 96% to under 50%. GDP growth hit 4.23%. Trade balance flipped positive, driven also by significant growth in non-oil receipts. Credit ratings are rising. And Nigeria has not defaulted—not once.

The current account, long in deficit, has turned positive for the first time in nearly a decade—another signal of restored macroeconomic confidence. FDI, once hesitant, is now humming. Over $18 billion has flowed in since Tinubu took office, with a $60 billion pledge backed by a confirmed $55 billion proof of funds. A Qatari firm is among the anchor investors, with a long-term investment pipeline reportedly valued at up to $300 billion. This isn’t speculative—it’s strategic.

What’s Faltering

Inflation, though crashing fast, is still high at 18.02% in September, keeping household expenses elevated. Tax-to-GDP ratio remains weak but targeted for quantum leap with the Tax Reform Policy kicking in from January. Institutional reforms are still uneven, but gaining traction. Corruption indicators persist, but the government has expressed its resolve to close the loop on wastage and infractions.

THE LEGACY QUESTION: Reform or Redemption?

This is not yet a miracle. But it is a moment. Tinubu’s reforms are not cosmetic—they’re surgical. Nigeria is no longer sleepwalking into default. It’s sprinting toward solvency. The global rankings show a nation in mid-table—not elite, not endangered. But the direction of travel matters more than the starting point.

The ?152 trillion debt is not a death sentence. It is a ledger of ambition—one that reflects strategic borrowing, disciplined repayment, and a pivot toward productivity.

In global finance, Nigeria is no longer a cautionary tale—it’s a case study in disciplined ambition.

The final act is still unfolding, but the script is no longer written in distress—it’s being revised with purpose.

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